A balança comercial brasileira e a taxa de câmbio: uma análise dos fatores econômicos e financeiros que influenciaram essa relação no período de 2010 a junho de 2023

Abstract

This work aims to analyze the economic and financial factors that influenced the Brazilian Trade Balance and the exchange rate in the period from 2010 to June 2023. The investigation of this theme was supported by a consistent theoretical framework that explains the structure of the balance trade and its components and its relationship with the exchange rate when influenced by internal and external macroeconomic factors that cause the exchange rate appreciation or devaluation and its impact on the Balance of Payments balance and trade balance. For the development of this research, it was used as a methodology, the bibliographical research or bibliographical revision of specialized literatures in the theme of this work, either in analyzes of conjunctures of the external market produced by the Central Bank of Brazil, IPEA, IBGE, and other correlated sources. Quantitative research was also used to extract data on exports, imports, trade balance, nominal and real exchange rate, among others, from secondary sources. With the data ready and statistically worked, the second stage of the analysis corresponds to the qualitative analysis that was organized to explain the internal and external economic and financial factors that influenced the trade balance and nominal and real exchange rate in the period defined in the research. The results of the analysis showed that there is a direct relationship between the real exchange rate and the behavior of the trade balance. This relationship was directly influenced by external events, mainly the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which indirectly affected the prices of commodities in the international market, including energy, minerals and agriculture.