A influência da precipitação e da temperatura sobre as ocorrências de febre chikungunya no município de Belém do Pará, Brasil

Abstract

The objective of this research was to evaluate the influence of climatic variables of air temperature and rainfall on the occurrence of Chikungunya fever (CHIKF). The study was conducted from 2016 to 2018, with application area in the municipality of Belém (PA). The variables were analyzed based on descriptive statistics from which mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, median, minimum and maximum were determined. Normality tests were performed to define by using the parametric or nonparametric correlation tests. For the variables that presented statistical significance, the multiple linear regression analysis was performed. Seasonality was confirmed with higher CHIKF records in the first half of the year, when the highest rainfall and mildest temperatures in the region are recorded. Pearson’s correlation identified an association between CHIKF occurrences and temperature and precipitation variables in 2016, which presented respectively positive and weak association and negative and weak association. In Belém, local climatic characteristics favor the maintenance of Chikungunya fever, however in the study of arboviruses other factors such as social and environmental factors should be considered.