Influência de variáveis atmosféricas sobre a incidência dos casos de dengue no município de Rio Branco - AC

Abstract

Dengue fits the profile of arboviruses of higher prevalence in the world, and thus is pointed as a worrisome public health problem, which is influenced by factors such as social inequality, population growth, climate change, water storage and climate variability. The action of meteorological variables has been considered and researched, in which air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall have represented greater correlations with the proliferation of dengue in these studies. The objective of the present study is to detect and analyze the association between the meteorological variable’s rainfall, relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature, and hospital admissions for dengue during the period from 2008 to 2018 in the municipality of Rio Branco, in the state of Acre. It was used the non - parametric Mann-Kendall test and cross correlation test to find possible relationships between epidemiological data and climate data. Based on the data analyzed, one can indicate the influence of meteorological variables on dengue hospital admissions. The Mann-Kendall test showed statistical significance with a negative trend in the time series, although it does not mean that the disease is decreasing, considering that many cases may not be reported, besides self-medication being more used. The cross correlation shows positive lags in precipitation and relative humidity, and negative lags in maximum and minimum temperature, all with statistical significance. The seasonal factor is predominant in the rate of hospitalizations, so the negative and positive results together provide a favorable environment for the proliferation of the disease, indicating that the climatic data interfere at least substantially in the occurrence of the disease. The results of this research can be useful in the elaboration and planning of educational and control policies for the vector disease, dengue.