Análise de Sensibilidade do NDVI na parametrização da Modelagem Atmosférica para a região Oeste do Pará

Abstract

This study was based on results of the numerical model BRAMS that was evaluated in two situations, the first round of the model with NDVI and the second round without NDVI. The study area comprises a region with 3.5 x 3.5 degrees, or approximately 388.5 x 388.5 kilometers or 150.932,25km2; with the grid centered in the city of Santarém-PA. The geographical coordinates of the seat of the municipality are 02º 26'22 "S and 54 41'55" W. This study aimed to determine the influence of NDVI in numerical weather BRAMS for some meteorological variables on the state of Para West, to it analyzed the variables rainfall, surface air temperature, sensible and latent heat and surface wind direction. From the results obtained it was found that the simulated situations by COM and SEM NDVI model, had higher contrast with each other in the dry season, where the rainfall variables, sensible heat and latent were the most were differences between simulations and between the model and the actual data. In the rainy season the variable rainfall was the one that generated the most contrast between the model and observed and measured data on surface stations. It was noted that the BRAMS model is not ideal to estimate net precipitation in surface on the western region of Pará, however, has a good rainfall hit rate when compared to the rain recorded by weather stations in the region, with around 70% in the rainy season. In general, the variable temperature of the surface air and direction of surface wind were among the least affected by NDVI, and also the modeled results that came closer to the data measured at stations. Given the constant changes in land use, and the importance of NDVI for a very forested region, it is suggested for future work that these simulations with current NDVI for the meteorological variables are tested.