Perspectivas de impactos das mudanças climáticas para áreas de cultivo agrícola na região de Santarém - Pa

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impact of warming up to 5 °C in air temperature in Santarém-PA region and other meteorological variables, such effect of climate change highlighted by IPCC using a biosphere-atmosphere interaction model (SiB2), using LBA data and calibration of the Biosphere-Atmosphere SiB2 interaction model proposed by Llopart (2009), in order to infer possible changes on soybeans and corn productivity in the region due to these changes. The study showed that the SiB2 model calibrated to the Tapajós National Forest represented satisfactorily the latent heat flux, sensible heat, CO2, evapotranspiration and radiation balance and can simulate real future scenarios for the region. The simulations enabled to realize that the changes in the scenarios will have a negative effect on soybean yield in the region, when analyzing temperature and evapotranspiration as a limiting factor for the culture productivity. As for the corn, future scenarios don’t present a major risk of production losses, given the physiologic and anatomical characteristics of the culture.