Inflação e Desemprego: um estudo simultâneo na economia brasileira de 2004 a 2019, usando modelos econométricos
Date
2022-07-20Author
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3589075273944699
BENTES, Ricardo Regis
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In studies that relate two major macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and unemployment, in addition to the adjustment to identify significant explanatory variables, it is extremely important to estimate a model for the Unemployment Rate and for the Phillips Curve, as it can serve as an aid in understanding the fluctuations that have occurred in the unemployment rate, identifying the factors that influence such changes. In addition, the study of the Phillips curve serves as support for the design of better political strategies, in the realization of medium and long-term prospective scenarios, given that such relationships tend to be stable over time. The present work has the general objective of simultaneously modeling the relationship of the interdependence of inflation with the unemployment rate, using the Simultaneous Equations Model (MES), for the Brazilian economy in the period of time from 2004 to 2019. Data taken from the website were used. IBGE official: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), Average nominal wages of Brazilian workers in the period, Real wages of Brazilian workers in the period, Unemployment Rate, Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate . First, a Multiple Linear Regression Model (MRLM) was adjusted for the Unemployment Rate, where there was statistical significance with the independent variables, namely: imports, inflation, GDP, exchange rate. The MRLM for the unemployment rate showed a coefficient of determination of 0.8531. Then, when an interdependence between the inflation and unemployment variables was observed, an MES was adjusted for the Original and Accelerationist Phillips curves, where it was verified that both estimated curves have statistical significance for the studied period. The Original Phillips curve estimated by MES showed an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.1127. The accelerationist Phillips curve estimated by MES showed an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.072. According to the coefficient of determination, the estimated models of the Phillips curves by MES fit better to the inflation rate, when compared to the adjustment by Simple Linear Regression Models (MRLS). The importance of estimating the Phillips Curve in the Brazilian economy in recent times is fundamental for thinking about macroeconomic policy in the fight against economic crises and efficiency of economic policies in order to increase the country's productivity.