Produção agropecuária (agrícola) e PIB versus desmatamento: análise de tendência, cointegração e causalidade no estado do Pará (2004-2019)

Abstract

The phenomenon of deforestation in the regions that make up the Amazon biomes is one of the main subjects discussed in academia in the 21st century, with the aim of contributing to the debate about the phenomenon of deforestation in Brazil in the face of the expansion of agricultural (agricultural) activities based on bibliographical review and through the application of econometric modeling in time series for the state of Pará, namely: trend (variation), cointegration of (Engle-Granger) and causality of (Granger) for the state of Pará based on data from State level of the dependent variable: deforestation rate in (hectares), and independent variables: soybean planted area in (hectares), corn planted area in (hectares), Paraense Gross Domestic Product a (current prices) for the period 2004 to 2019. The results of the trend analysis showed that all series showed increasing variation (trend), with them expanding and being seen as possible 'drivers/proxies' explaining deforestation. The results of the cointegration models show that corn does not follow soybean production, but soybean is cointegrated with deforestation, that is, these last two long-term time series are not independent of each other, and the Gross Domestic Product is cointegrated with deforestation, including showing bidirectional causality between the Deforestation and Gross Domestic Product series for the state of Pará, in the period analyzed, from 2004 to 2019.