Análise do impacto das mudanças climáticas e variabilidade natural do clima em produtos da bioeconomia da Região Norte – Amazônia- Brasil

Abstract

The primary objective of this research is to establish cause-effect relationships between climate changes/natural climate variability and the production of bioeconomy products in Brazil's Northern region. It focuses on crops such as avocado, pineapple, cocoa, beans, guava, cassava, and annatto. The study uses data from the IBGE's Automatic Recovery System for Aggregated Data (SIDRA), covering production (in tons), planted area (in hectares), and harvested area (in hectares). These are correlated with total rainfall and annual mean maximum air temperatures for the Northern region, sourced from the Climate Engine platform. The results indicate a clear association between warmer, drier years and the occurrence of El Niño events, whereas wetter, cooler years align with La Niña phenomena. The study analyzed climate variability from 1994 to 2023 in Northern Brazil and its impact on various agricultural crops, correlating precipitation, temperature, and production. Findings reveal that phenomena like El Niño and La Niña significantly influence rainfall patterns, affecting crops like cassava, beans, avocado, and annatto. While wetter years with moderate temperatures enhance productivity, dry and wet periods, such as 2023, are linked to significant declines in agricultural production. Cassava was found to be the most sensitive to climatic conditions, with reduced productivity during dry years. Beans and annatto also showed precipitation dependence, whereas avocado production experienced a continuous decline due to adverse climate and economic factors. Cocoa and pineapple stood out for their climate resilience, supported by technological innovations and irrigation. The analysis concludes that climate changes, such as rising temperatures and irregular rainfall patterns, pose a threat to agricultural sustainability in the region, especially for climate-sensitive crops. Adaptive management strategies and technologies will be crucial to mitigate the anticipated impacts.