O mercado de crédito bancário brasileiro e a inadimplência das famílias no período de 2018 a 2024

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the Brazilian banking credit market and its impacts on the levels of family defaults from 2018 to 2024. The directions of this research led us to investigate the issue of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian families during this period, while also identifying which types of banking credit these families commit their monthly income to. The theoretical foundations outlined to support the analysis of this research followed the logic of understanding the various phases of currency and its transformations until reaching the current form where digital currency is the fastest means of payment that facilitates economic and financial transactions. Understanding this process, the macroeconomic theory of interest rates and its relationship with the credit market was essential to understand the trajectory of this variable during the period, as well as its use in the monetary policies of the Central Bank of Brazil, benefiting or not the reduction of household debt. For the execution of this research, we adopted a qualiquantitative methodological approach to address the proposed problem. It is a study based on secondary data extracted from the Consumer Indebtedness and Default Survey (PEIC) from 2018 to 2024, conducted monthly by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services, and Tourism (CNC), with the aim of informing the level of indebtedness and default of families, their payment conditions, and the forms of credit used. To further qualify this research, other sources were consulted, such as the Minutes of Copom, Financial Stability Report, Inflation Report, both from the Central Bank of Brazil. The results showed that the variations in interest rates, the monetary and fiscal policies implemented before, during, and after the coronavirus pandemic, and the credit facilities with the expansion of digital banks, in particular, contributed to the increase in the number of defaulting families. In 2022, the percentage of indebted individuals reached 77.92% and is concentrated in the credit card modality.