Longevidade em alta, previdência em risco: uma análise da pressão demográfica so- bre o sistema previdenciário brasileiro

Abstract

This Undergraduate Thesis aims to analyze how the process of population aging and its structural transformations exert pressure on the sustainability of the Brazilian Social Security System, assessing its impacts on the dependency ratio, the volume of benefits granted, and the contributory capacity of the population. The research is guided by the following problem statement: Considering the accelerated aging of the Brazilian population, in what ways does the transformation of the age structure place pressure on the financial and actuarial sustainability of the Brazilian Social Security System? Furthermore, to what extent have recent pension reforms been able to respond to these challenges? The methodology adopted is characterized as a descriptive and analytical study, employing both qualitative and quantitative approaches, and grounded in bibliographical and documentary research. Secondary data were drawn from the 2010 and 2022 Demographic Censuses (IBGE), the Social Security Statistical Yearbooks (2020 and 2024), the RGPS Statistical Panel, and official documents from the Ministry of Social Security and the Ministry of Finance. The main results demonstrate that the decline in fertility and birth rates, combined with rising life expectancy, accelerates the aging process in Brazil, producing an older age structure with a smaller proportion of individuals in contributory age groups. The age pyramid reveals a consistent narrowing of the younger cohorts and an enlargement of the older segments, reinforcing the trend of an expanding elderly population. Consequently, although the contributory capacity increased—reflected in the rise in the number of active contributors across all major regions—this growth has been insufficient to offset the faster pace of beneficiary expansion in some areas. The social security dependency ratio remained high, indicating that despite gains in contributory participation, the system continues to be strained by the speed of demographic transition.